Josh Inglis
• Betting Analyst
13+ years betting experience
Updated:
May 28, 2026 , 10:46 AM ET
• 4 min read
Oneil Cruz has one of the best matchups on the board against a homer-prone righty in Colin Rea, with winds blowing out to right field at Wrigley Field.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz (15) hits a fly ball vs. the Cubs.
It’s a small slate Thursday with slim pickings for home runs and MLB player props, but there are some bats to back and get me over this cold spell.
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ left-handed bats have an edge vs. a home-run friendly pitcher and winds blowing out to right field, while Comerica Park is also another setting that could favor some big-priced left-handed hitters.
These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Thursday, May 28.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Oneil Cruz |
+441 |
 Wade Meckler |
+940 |
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Home run pick: Oneil Cruz (+441)
There isn’t a massive list of +EV home run props today, but Oneil Cruz is firmly on it with a fair price around +400. He’ll face Chicago starter Colin Rea, who has allowed multiple home runs in two of his last three starts and ranks as one of the weaker starters on today’s board in both HR/FB rate and BlastContact%, per Fangraphs.
That matchup lines up well for Cruz, who is one of just three hitters in baseball over the last seven days with a swing speed north of 79 mph. His BlastContact% remains among the best in baseball, and he never cheats his swing.
Cruz will hit atop the order against the right-hander, and his one home run across his last 63 plate appearances makes this a good buy-low spot, especially with that rate sitting well below career norms. The 11-mph winds blowing out to right field only add to the appeal for the left-handed slugger.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, Marquee Sports Network
Home run pick: Wade Meckler (+940)
Wade who? Wade Meckler, that’s who. I want a left-handed bat against Jack Flaherty with double-digit winds blowing out to right field at Comerica Park.
This also isn’t some bottom-of-the-order hitter. Meckler posted an OPS near 1.000 at Double-A before flying through Triple-A and joining the big-league club last week. He homered in his first game and enters today 6-for-14 at the plate. His SquareUp% is also one of the best on the team, even in the small sample.
Flaherty remains one of the worst ground-ball pitchers in baseball, with only 14 qualified starters carrying a lower ground-ball rate than his 31.8%. With the home-run cold streak I’ve been on, I’m more than willing to go off the board on a small slate for a massive number in a favorable matchup.
- Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, ABTV
Josh Inglis’ 2026 Transparency Record
- HR picks: 13-97, -29.94 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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