Jason Ence
• Betting Analyst
13+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 9, 2026 , 08:10 PM ET
• 4 min read
Jason Ence likes Spain to advance, but the best bet in this World Cup quarterfinal is built on La Roja’s clean-sheet form.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Spain midfielder Rodri (16) controls the ball.
Belgium knocked the United States out of the 2026 World Cup, and their reward is a showdown with a Spain side that entered the tournament as favorites to win it all.
Spain are heavily favored to advance to the semifinals, and my Spain vs. Belgium predictions explain why they’ll advance in a tighter match than many might expect.
Find out more as I break down my favorite World Cup picks for Friday, July 10.
Spain vs Belgium predictions
| Pick | Price |
|---|---|
| Who will win pick: Spain in regulation | -150 |
| Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 | +105 |
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Who will win Spain vs Belgium: Spain in regulation (-150)
This is a terrific matchup of strength vs. strength. Spain wants to maintain possession and win it back quickly, while Belgium is content to cede the ball to their opponents and hit on the break when needed.
Belgium ranks fifth in total direct attacks, but none of them have led to a goal. That lack of product is why I’m not worried about them hurting Spain in that manner.
Belgium relies on its pressing, ranking eighth in PPDA (10.6) and 10th in high turnovers (8.2) per match. They’ve used those to lead directly to scoring opportunities, averaging three shots on target and 0.80 goals per match from high turnovers.
Without those, Belgium has struggled. They’ve attempted the second-most shots per match, with a conversion rate ranking in the bottom half of the competition.
Spain’s defense is the only one yet to be breached, and they’ve allowed just five shots on target from 29 total attempts. Their midfield is also quite press-resistant, with Rodri and Pedri controlling things centrally.
When teams get through Belgium’s press, they’ve found success. Despite allowing only three shots on target per match, Belgium conceded six times and managed just one clean sheet.
The loss of Amadou Onana to an ACL injury weakens Belgium’s midfield, and they’ll be forced to play more cautiously. Spain’s superior talent and relentless pressure will eventually lead to a goal as they win in regulation.
Playable to -170.
TOp pick
Spain vs Belgium Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (+105)
Not only am I expecting Spain to win, but I’m expecting their clean sheet streak to continue.
Yes, Belgium scored four goals against the United States. But two of those goals came from very poor defending, and another came from a comedy of errors at the back. Spain’s not going to gift them those goals, and they’re not going to allow them many opportunities at all.
La Roja didn’t even concede a shot on target in the first 75 minutes of their first four matches of the tournament. Portugal got two of them in the first 37 minutes, but were denied another one for the rest of the match.
Both of these teams do a great job of negating opponents in midfield, ranking in the Top 5 in recoveries per match. They also both sport a Top 6 aerial duel win rate.
Spain is conceding just 0.05 xG per shot and 1.49 xG in total, the best marks in the tournament, and they’re forcing teams to take the fifth-highest rate of shots from outside the box. The 41 penalty area touches allowed is also a credit to their pressure.
These two nations are going to battle in the midfield for large stretches, much like Spain and Portugal did. But just like Portugal, Belgium is good for a few mistakes per match, and that’s where La Roja will strike.
This is my top play, and I’m backing it to -120.
Spain vs Belgium projected lineup
Spain (4-2-3-1): Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal.
Belgium (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Castagne, Mechele, Ngoy, Cuyper; Tielemans, Vanaken; Doku, De Bruyne, Trossard; De Ketelaere.
Spain vs Belgium injuries
Spain: Nico Williams (Doubtful).
Belgium: Amadou Onana (Out), Zeno Debast (Doubtful).
Spain vs Belgium weather
The weather will not be a factor as this game is played in a dome.
Spain vs Belgium odds
| Spain | Belgium | |
|---|---|---|
| -150 | Moneyline | +488 |
| +317 | Draw | +317 |
| Over 2.5 (-117) | Total | Under 2.5 (+113) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Spain vs Belgium
Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA, USA |
| Date | Friday, July 10, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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