At only 22 years old, Rays third baseman Junior Caminero competed in his first MLB All-Star Game this season and was also the runner-up in the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby. He’s one of the brightest young stars in baseball, and his explosive bat speed has been at the forefront of his emergence as a star this season. Caminero has 26 home runs entering a Monday matchup with the Yankees, and he’ll match up with right-hander Cam Schlittler having hit 20 of those home runs off righties.
He’s priced as high as +370 in the MLB home run odds, and an ideal matchup for one of the best young power hitters in baseball is why he’s one of our top MLB HR picks. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest BetMGM promo code to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first bet loses and take advantage of one of the top sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 43.95 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Monday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. Also, be sure to check out our MLB picks for Blue Jays vs. Orioles and Pirates vs. Giants.
Best MLB home run picks for Monday, July 28:
Junior Caminero, Rays (+370)
It will be a hot night in the Bronx (game-time temperatures are forecasted in the low-90s), and Yankee Stadium is the third-most homer-friendly stadium in baseball over the last three seasons. That certainly bodes well for Caminero, who only ranks behind Oneil Cruz of the Pirates in bat speed (78.1 mph) this season. He’s hit 17 of his 26 home runs at home this season, and he’ll be on the road tonight, but the Rays are temporarily playing in New York’s spring training facility, and the dimensions are identical to Yankee Stadium.
“Caminero went just 1-for-12 against the Reds in their series over the weekend, so this is a buy-low opportunity that the model likes,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set Caminero’s line at +285 to hit a HR.” DraftKings is offering the best price here, and you can also get $150 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager with the latest DraftKings promo code:
Sean Murphy, Braves (+420)
Murphy shares catching responsibilities pretty evenly in Atlanta with Drake Baldwin and continues to be a productive player offensively when called upon. He has 16 home runs this season in only 68 games and is slugging .498 overall. He’ll face Rich Hill of the Royals on Monday, and he has previously homered off the veteran lefty.
“Murphy is hitting just .233 overall this season and just .227 against left-handed pitchers, but he has huge power numbers against lefties. He has a .606 SLG and 7 HRs in 66 at-bats this season against left-handed pitchers,” Fetner said. “We set Murphy’s line at +340 to hit a HR.” New users can take advantage of the latest bet365 bonus code, which offers new users $150 in bonus bets with a $5+ bet:
Ryan McMahon, Yankees (+475)
After hitting at least 20 home runs in each of the last five full MLB seasons in Colorado, McMahon was traded to the Yankees on Friday. He doesn’t have the advantage of playing in Coors Field as his home park anymore, but he does get to work with the short porch in right field as a left-handed hitter at Yankee Stadium. He has hits in each of his first two games in New York and ripped a two-run double in the pinstripes on Sunday.
“McMahon has 14 of his 16 HRs against right-handed pitchers, and he has hit 14 of his 16 HRs in night games this season,” Fetner said. “We set McMahon’s line at +383 to hit a HR.” Once again, DraftKings is offering the best price on McMahon to homer, which you can bet on here.
Where to bet MLB props on Monday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Monday:
More MLB picks for Monday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 67-55-1 roll (+1783) on MLB picks.
