Patriots vs. Broncos prediction, odds, line: 2026 AFC Championship Game picks by proven model

The Denver Broncos will look to overcome the loss of quarterback Bo Nix (ankle) when they battle the New England Patriots in the 2026 AFC Championship Game on Sunday. The winner will advance to Super Bowl LX. New England downed Houston 28-16 on Sunday, while Denver outlasted Buffalo 33-30 in overtime on Saturday. The Patriots (14-3), the second seed in the AFC, are 8-0 on the road this season. The Broncos (14-3), the top seed in the conference, are 9-1 at home, including the postseason.

Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver is set for 3 p.m. ET on CBS and Paramount+ (sign up here). The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Patriots vs. Broncos odds, a 2-point drop since opening as 5.5-point favorites. The over/under for total points scored is 42.5 via DraftKings Sportsbooks. Before making any Broncos vs. Patriots picks, check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the AFC and NFC Championship Games on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.    

Now, the model has set its sights on Patriots vs. Broncos. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Broncos vs. Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover

MVP candidate Drake Maye helps power the New England offense. In 17 regular-season games, he completed 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards and 31 touchdowns with eight interceptions and a 113.5 rating. In the postseason, he has thrown for four touchdowns with two interceptions. In the win over the Texans, he completed 16 of 27 passes for 179 yards and three touchdowns with one interception.

His top target has been Stefon Diggs. In 17 regular-season games, he caught 85 passes for 1,013 yards and four touchdowns. He had 17 explosive plays of 20 yards or more, including a long of 34. He also had 354 yards after the catch with 51 first-down conversions. He caught four passes for 40 yards and a score in the win over Houston. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Broncos can cover

Backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham will take over for the injured Nix. He will be making his first extended appearance since Jan. 7, 2024, when he guided Denver against the Las Vegas Raiders. In a 27-14 loss, he completed 20 of 34 passes for 272 yards and one touchdown with one interception. For his career, he has played in 20 games, completing 59.4% of his passes for 1,422 yards and eight touchdowns with eight interceptions.

Veteran wide receiver Courtland Sutton will be a key target. In 18 games, including playoffs, he has 78 receptions for 1,070 yards and seven touchdowns. Sutton had four catches for 53 yards in the win over Buffalo. He’s had two games with seven or more receptions, including seven for 113 yards (16.1 average) and one touchdown in a 34-26 win over Green Bay on Dec. 14. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Patriots vs. Broncos picks

SportsLine’s model is going Under on the total, projecting 40 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Broncos vs. Patriots, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Patriots vs. Broncos spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $7,000 on its NFL picks since its inception, and find out.